Macadamia crop forecasting 2023-2025 (MC22001)

This project delivered climate-adjusted forecasts of Australia’s macadamia crop for the 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons, along with longer-term production forecasts, extending 10 years into the future. These insights are designed to support growers and processors in making informed decisions regarding industry logistics, export contracts, and future industry expansion. 

Each year, the project team sourced and analysed a range of targeted data to generate both annual and long-term crop forecasts. Historical production was collated by the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) on a regional basis, while relevant meteorological data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Additional inputs included satellite imagery, historical price data, and tree planting numbers.  

Production models were developed by correlating actual production for each region against tree numbers, establishing baseline expectations for long-term forecasts. These models were then adjusted annually to account for seasonal and climate-related factors, with final forecasts delivered each February.  A combination of both ‘more traditional’ statistical models along with other emerging machine-learning algorithms were used to improve accuracy and responsiveness to changing conditions. 

To support the forecasting process, at the same time, an industry-wide survey of flower ratings was collated by the Macadamia Benchmarking Project team, enabling identification of any potential problems. The results and crop forecasts were drawn together in a full report that was forwarded to Hort Innovation and AMS each year.  

While forecast accuracy has been strong, the project identified opportunities to further improve future performance through the adoption of advanced data analytics and modelling techniques. 

By delivering reliable, climate-informed forecasts, this project has provided valuable business intelligence to support confident decision-making across the Australian macadamia supply chain and positioned the industry for sustainable growth.